Nearly three years ago, Thiago Santos was the first man to win a scorecard against then-light heavyweight champion Jon Jones. Then came surgeries and a losing skid that saw Santo’s tumble from the ranks of contenders in the post-Jones UFC light heavyweight division. Santos enters Saturday’s UFC Fight Night main event against Magomed Ankalaev looking to claw his way back into contention.
After starting his Octagon career as a middleweight, Santos jumped to the light heavyweight division in 2018. He immediately was a force at 205 pounds, scoring three straight knockout victories, culminating in a February 2019 win over Jan Błachowicz.
That run of success landed Santos in the Octagon against Jones that July where he would go on to give the champion nearly all he could handle before coming up short on two of the three official scorecards. Unfortunately, Santos suffered a series of serious injuries in the bout with Jones, including tearing his left ACL, PCL, MCL and meniscus, and also cracking his right tibia partially tearing the meniscus in his right knee as well.
Santos returned in November 2020, losing via submission to Glover Teixeira and then losing to Aleksandar Rakic by decision in March 2021 before finally getting back in the win column against Johnny Walker this past October.
In Ankalaev, Santos faces a serious light heavyweight contender and a fighter on a seven-fight winning streak.
Ankalaev’s lone stumble in the UFC came in his Octagon debut when he was caught in a Paul Craig triangle choke. He would then hit his stride and pick up four knockouts during his current winning streak.
In his most recent outing, Ankalaev picked up a win over former title challenger Volkan Oezdemir. A win over Santos would make for two consecutive wins over men who have challenged for the belt and land Ankalaev on the short list of challengers for the winner of the upcoming title fight between champion Teixeira and challenger Jiri Prochazka in June.
This may be one of the deepest Fight Night cards of the year with former title challengers and rising prospects abound. The co-main event sees a pair of bantamweights looking to make a move in the rankings when Song Yadong takes on Marlon Moraes. Yadong is 3-1-1 in his last five fights and the 24-year-old seems to be rising quickly through the 135-pound ranks. Moraes, meanwhile, is heading in the opposite direction. The Brazilian is just 1-3 since challenging Henry Cejudo for the title in 2019 with all three losses coming by TKO.
Elsewhere, rising middleweight prospects Alex Pereira and Bruno Silva are set to scrap it out in the main card opener. Pereira, who owns the distinction of two wins over UFC champ Israel Adesanya in kickboxing, is off and running in MMA. He’s scored four straight wins with each coming by knockout, including his UFC debut against Andreas Michailidis in November. Silva, meanwhile, is just as destructive with 19 of his 22 wins coming by TKO. He’s won seven straight since 2017 with all coming by stoppage.
Here’s the fight card for UFC Fight Night with the latest odds from Caesars Sportsbook.
UFC Fight Night card, odds
| FAVORITE | UNDERDOG | WEIGHTCLASS |
| Magomed Ankalaev -550 | Thiago Santos +400 | Light heavyweight |
| Song Yadong -240 | Marlon Moraes +200 | Bantamweight |
| Sodiq Yusuff -260 | Alex Caceres +210 | Featherweight |
| Karl Roberson -130 | Khalil Rountree Jr. +110 | Light heavyweight |
| Drew Dober -170 | Terrance McKinney +145 | Lightweight |
| Alex Pereira -175 | Bruno Silva +150 | Middleweight |
UFC Fight Night viewing information
Date: March 12 | Start time: 7 p.m. ET
Location: UFC Apex — Las Vegas
Stream: ESPN+
Prediction
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Thiago Santos: Both men can throw serious heat in the stand-up game, with both having strong kick-based attacks. Ankalaev has shown a susceptibility to leg kicks in recent fights and Santos can leg kick with the best in the division. While Ankalaev has decent striking chops, Santos’ power will likely make him want to employ his strong wrestling background to take the fight to the ground and minimize danger. But, can Ankalaev close distance to get those takedowns without eating Santos’ explosive power?
It’s important to note that Santos is far and away the best fighter Ankalaev has faced in his Octagon career. We’ve seen plenty of men stumble in big step-up fights and Santos is aware of how important it is for him to pick up a win and not have a 1-4 record in his five most recent outings. It’s a tough fight to call, much tougher than the odds suggest, which would tell you Ankalaev is a lock as a force at the top end of the division. But this step up may be too much against a dangerous fighter who needs the win. Pick: Thiago Santos via TKO2
Thiago Santos Wants to Get Back to the Top
As of March 2022, Thiago Santos is sitting in the #5 position in the UFC Light Heavyweight rankings. It’s not bad, but he could’ve been even higher. The reason why he isn’t closer to the top of the table is that he lost three of his previous four UFC fights.
Everything started with the title fight with Jon Jones, which Santos lost by split decision. He then had a chance to bounce back against Glover Teixeira but failed to do so. Teixeira beat him by submission. The next stop was the fight against Aleksandar Rakic. Unfortunately for Santos, he lost again. This time, it was by unanimous decision.The good news is that his losing streak ended in October 2021. That’s when he defeated Johnny Walker by unanimous decision.
The result of all this is that Santos’ record is now 22-9, which isn’t bad at all, especially knowing that he’s won against some amazing players in the past. Jan Blachowicz, Kevin Holland, Jack Hermansson – these are just some of the big-name MMA fighters he’s won against in his 12+ years-long career.
Magomed Ankalaev Could be the Next Big Thing in the UFC
He is currently sixth in the UFC Light Heavyweight Rankings, even though his professional-career record is 16-1. The reason why he isn’t higher in the rankings is that he’s fought only eight fights in the UFC. His journey started with a loss at UFC Fight Night 127, but since then, he has all wins.
The trouble is that he hasn’t fought as a high-ranked fighter as Santos. In fact, his toughest opponent so far was Volkan Oezdemir, who is #8 in the rankings at the moment. The fight in question happened last October when we saw Ankalaev win by unanimous decision.
It was his seventh career win by this method. The other nine wins happened by knockout, while he is still without a single win by submission. Striking is his strongest weapon, but the trouble is that the same goes for Santos. That said, it’s very likely Saturday’s bout is going to finish with one of the fighters laying on the ground. But, who’s going to get KO-d?
Odds suggest it’s going to be Santos, but the Brazilian veteran mustn’t be underestimated. The fact that he’s beaten many tougher fighters than Ankalaev suggests that backing him could be a wise betting decision.
